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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would serve as guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. A key demand centers on Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security formations instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented the president, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.